Tirreno-Adriatico 2026: GC Favourites

fotobureau Cor VosThe Italian stage race offers a varied route with plenty of opportunities to set off the fireworks. Who are the favourites for the overall victory in Tirreno–Adriatico, and which stages are likely to provide the most promising GC action?

Key stages: 1, 5, and 6

Tirreno could turn into a battle of youth versus experience in Tirreno. On paper, Roglic (36) and Del Toro (22) are the top favourites, while Jorgenson (26) sits somewhere in between age-wise. Roglic may no longer dominate the Grand Tours, but he still won the Volta a Catalunya, while Del Toro just missed out on winning the Giro. This season, the Mexican has hit the ground running with the UAE Tour overall win and a strong third place at Strade Bianche behind his undisputed team leader Pogačar and Seixas. For Roglic, Tirreno marks the start of his season.

Jorgenson is in a similar position to what Roglic is nowadays: strong in shorter stage races but less so in the Grand Tours. Over the past two years, the American has impressed by winning Paris–Nice. This time, he is targeting Tirreno.

Should Roglic fail to deliver, his team can turn to shadow leader Pellizari. Like Del Toro, he is 22 years old. Last year, in his first season with a WorldTour team, he impressed by finishing sixth overall in both the Giro and the Vuelta. In Spain, he also claimed a stage victory. Red Bull–BORA–hansgrohe are so well stocked with GC contenders that they can even play the card of former Giro winner Hindley.

Key stages
GC contenders need to stay alert from the start. Stage 1 will see the first time gaps, although the flat 11.5-kilometre course is unlikely to produce significant differences. Stage 2 is similar in the sense that GC riders will have to be wide awake in the finale. A gravel sector comes with just under 8 kilometres to go and ends with 1.5 kilometres remaining, after which a short, narrow and steep climb to the line awaits.

After two relatively calm days, the action heats up on the fifth day. The riders face a brutal 186-kilometre hilly stage with roughly 3,900 metres of climbing. The finish comes just after the final climb, which rises 6.2% over 4.2 kilometres.

Stage 6 features a similar 3,900 metres of climbing, mirroring the previous day, but this time the stage finishes on a short, steep climb: 3.2 kilometres at an average gradient of 8.9%.

Since the final stage is a pure sprinter’s opportunity, the winner of Tirreno–Adriatico is decided on the penultimate day.

Last year, Ayuso claimed overall victory. That edition’s route was hardly comparable to this year’s, as the GC was largely decided on the long final climb of the 6th stage. This year, however, there are several key moments where the race could be won or lost.

Favourites 2026 Tirreno-Adriatico

***** Primoz Roglic, Isaac del Toro
**** Matteo Jorgenson, Giulio Pellizzari
*** Richard Carapaz, Antonio Tiberi, Ben Healy
** Thymen Arensman, Giulio Ciccone, Jai Hindley, Michael Storer
* Lennert Van Eetvelt, Santiago Buitrago, Ilan Van Wilder, Jan Christen